Prediction Markets Daily Read — Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | ProbCast

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Hot Markets

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?61%▲5.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?89%▲18.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?38%▼5.0 Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?71%▲22.6 Will Abdul El Sayed and Francesca Hong both win their primaries?1%▼95.8 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?55%▼6.0 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?35%▼8.5 Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?86%▲7.5 Fed rate hike in 2026?56%▼3.0 Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?14%▲3.7 Will my this market post cross 5Ok Mana mark? (THIS ONE)99%▲86.3 Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?80%▲5.0 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?63%▲5.5 Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?62%▼14.5 Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?23%▲5.2 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?99%▲4.0

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?61%▲5.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?89%▲18.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?38%▼5.0 Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?71%▲22.6 Will Abdul El Sayed and Francesca Hong both win their primaries?1%▼95.8 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?55%▼6.0 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?35%▼8.5 Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?86%▲7.5 Fed rate hike in 2026?56%▼3.0 Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?14%▲3.7 Will my this market post cross 5Ok Mana mark? (THIS ONE)99%▲86.3 Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?80%▲5.0 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?63%▲5.5 Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?62%▼14.5 Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?23%▲5.2 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?99%▲4.0

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.061%Confirmed move

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.037%Confirmed move

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

0.027%Confirmed move

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.056%Confirmed move

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.016%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Abdul El Sayed and Francesca Hong both win their primaries?

Moved down 95.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-95.81%Likely noise

Will my this market post cross 5Ok Mana mark? (THIS ONE)

Moved up 86.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+86.399%Likely noise

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?

Moved up 20.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+20.091%Likely noise

Settled (32 in 24h)

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?Polymarketno
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on August 11?Polymarketno
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic Primary for governor by 10.00% or more?Manifoldno
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 11?Polymarketno
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 11?Polymarketno

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Will the winner of the South Carolina Special Republican Primary for Senate recieve at least 50% of the vote?Manifoldno

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" earns more than $170M in domestic gross earnings during their second weekend?Manifoldno

Will my new phone die before I get home tonight?Manifoldno

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