ProbCastOdds Reliability
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?55%▼2.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 26?63%▲23.0US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?91%▲4.0Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?57%▼0.5Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?0%▼7.4Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?7%▼6.8Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?3%▼9.0US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?34%▼7.5Will somebody use my Bilt referral link before end of Sep 2026?92%▲86.2US Average Gas Price Is $4.4800 or more on September 28 2026?84%▲24.1Will I get a positive pregnancy test in the next two weeks?51%▼18.1US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?57%▼4.9US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?4%▼5.2Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?24%▼10.0Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?26%▼8.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?27%▼4.0

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Wednesday, August 12, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Moved up 2.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.712%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.033%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.067%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.06%Confirmed move
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Moved up 1.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.320%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?

Moved up 20.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+20.570%Likely noise
Will Apple stock go up?

Moved down 42.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-42.123%Likely noise
Will Jose Vega debate Ritchie Torres?

Moved down 49.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-49.01%Likely noise

Settled (60 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.