Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 20.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 47.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 18.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 24.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (46 in 24h)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will I get my licence in time for my flight ?Manifoldno
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on August 10?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.