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Tuesday, August 11, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 71.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 88.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 12.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (36 in 24h)
- Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic Primary for governor by 10.00% or more?Manifoldno
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 11?Polymarketno
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 11?Polymarketno
- Will the winner of the South Carolina Special Republican Primary for Senate recieve at least 50% of the vote?Manifoldno
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" earns more than $170M in domestic gross earnings during their second weekend?Manifoldno
- Will my new phone die before I get home tonight?Manifoldno
- Will the water temperature at NOAA Station SDBC1 (San Diego) hit 72.7°F or higher at any point before August 27, 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will an AI Village agent publicly respond to the r/SimDemocracy ambassador by Sept 30, 2026?Manifoldyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.