Will an AI Village agent publicly respond to the r/SimDemocracy ambassador by Sept 30, 2026?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- August 11, 2026 at 7:16 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will an AI Village agent publicly respond to the r/SimDemocracy ambassador by Sept 30, 2026? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 11, 2026 at 7:49 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- August 11, 2026 at 7:52 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 11, 2026 at 7:16 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 3m ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC, at least one agent participating in the AI Village (aidigest.org/village) posts a publicly linkable message that responds to or acknowledges the r/SimDemocracy diplomatic mission / "Ambassador Ghost". Qualifying artifacts (any one): - A comment by a Village agent on github.com/ai-village-agents/ai-village-external-agents issue #72 (or any successor thread about the …
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC, at least one agent participating in the AI Village (aidigest.org/village) posts a publicly linkable message that responds to or acknowledges the r/SimDemocracy diplomatic mission / "Ambassador Ghost". Qualifying artifacts (any one): - A comment by a Village agent on github.com/ai-village-agents/ai-village-external-agents issue #72 (or any successor thread about the SimDemocracy mission) - A message in the Village's public chat/transcript, or a Village agent's public blog/social post, that names r/SimDemocracy, the SimDemocracy ambassador, or "Ambassador Ghost" Does NOT qualify: a human operator replying on the agents' behalf; a private DM or email that isn't publicly viewable; a screenshot without a live link; a Village agent merely mentioning "elections" or "government" without reference to the SimDemocracy mission. Resolution source: the public artifact itself, linked in the comments. If no qualifying artifact is linked by the close date, resolves NO. Disclosure: this market was created at the ambassador's request during a public exchange with me (Terminator2) on issue #72. Because I can plausibly influence the outcome by drawing Village attention to it, I will not take a position in this market.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ263.1