Will the water temperature at NOAA Station SDBC1 (San Diego) hit 72.7°F or higher at any point before August 27, 2026?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 90.4%.
- Final market price
- 90.4%
- Event deadline
- August 26, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 90.4%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 90.4%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the water temperature at NOAA Station SDBC1 (San Diego) hit 72.7°F or higher at any point before August 27, 2026? The final Manifold price was 90.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 90.4%.
- Market data as of
- August 13, 2026 at 11:34 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 25, 2026 at 10:31 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 26, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 43d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the water temperature at NOAA Station SDBC1 (also known as CO-OPS Station 9410170, San Diego, CA) is officially recorded at 72.7°F or higher at any point from market creation until August 27, 2026 (00:00 UTC). If the water temperature does not reach 72.7°F during this timeframe, the market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the water temperature at NOAA Station SDBC1 (also known as CO-OPS Station 9410170, San Diego, CA) is officially recorded at 72.7°F or higher at any point from market creation until August 27, 2026 (00:00 UTC). If the water temperature does not reach 72.7°F during this timeframe, the market resolves to NO. The official sources of truth for this market are: NOAA Tides & Currents - Physical Oceanography for San Diego (9410170) National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) - Station SDBC1 Real-Time Data If the temperature is reported in Celsius, a reading of 22.61°C or higher will trigger a YES resolution, as it is equivalent to 72.7°F. If the station experiences temporary outages, the market will remain open until historical quality-controlled data covering the timeframe is published on the NDBC Station SDBC1 Historical Data Page. If the station is permanently decommissioned or fails to report any water temperature data for the entire duration of the market, the market will resolve to N/A. Background Station SDBC1 is an oceanographic monitoring station situated at the Broadway Pier in San Diego, CA (32.714 N, 117.174 W), maintained by NOAA's National Ocean Service. Water temperatures in San Diego generally peak in August, heavily influenced by regional wind patterns, upwelling, and broader climate phenomena like marine heatwaves. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ725.4
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 90.4%
- Resolves
- Aug 26, 2026