Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Tuesday, August 4, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 22.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 19.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 18.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 14.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 14.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 30.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (33 in 24h)
- Daily CoinflipManifoldyes
- Ethereum price at Aug 4, 2026 at 10pm EDT?Kalshino
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?Polymarketyes
- Will I make dinner today?Manifoldyes
- Will this market attract at least 5 unique traders before it closes?Manifoldyes
- Will bot trades account for more than 75% of the total volume of trades in this market in 1 weekManifoldno
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?Polymarketyes
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.