Will I be wowed by whatever SSI releases in August?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 17.4%
- Event deadline
- September 15, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will I be wowed by whatever SSI releases in August? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 17.4%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- September 15, 2026 at 10:08 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 27, 2026 at 4:52 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 15, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 41d ago
What this market actually measures
According to a rumor on Twitter Ilya's firm SSI is planning to finally release a product in August. They have previously stated that their plan is to release nothing until they have superintelligence.
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View full official resolution rules
According to a rumor on Twitter Ilya's firm SSI is planning to finally release a product in August. They have previously stated that their plan is to release nothing until they have superintelligence. So, if they are true to their word this release should be pretty amazing right? I am skeptical, but would like to remain open to being surprised. SITUATION DETECTED: Ilya Sutskever's Safe Superintelligence is reportedly planning to launch its highly anticipated first model in August 2026, per Gavin Baker in an interview with Patrick O'Shaughnessy. https://x.com/i/status/2084675767053824332 So this is a subjective market, and therefore one I will not be betting in. Will I be amazed by what SSI releases in August? I'll give them until September 15th to release something in case there's a delay. If I am amazed (e.g. destroys benchmarks, demonstrates new AI capabilities way out of reach other models, answers some of my white whale questions I keep coming back to LLMs with, etc) I will resolve YES, if I am not amazed I will resolve NO, if nothing is released by September 15th I will resolve N/A.