Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 95.7%.
- Final market price
- 95.7%
- Event deadline
- August 6, 2026 at 12:50 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)? The final Manifold price was 95.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 95.7%.
- Market data as of
- August 9, 2026 at 1:44 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 2, 2026 at 12:13 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 6, 2026 at 12:50 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 85d ago
What this market actually measures
Something happens is defined as anything that: Zvi does not know about on August 2, 2026 at 5pm EST (he knows about the math proofs, which will be Monday's post) Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase Is about AI. The speed premium post can happen after Friday, but the central events that trigger it must occur by Friday 5pm eastern.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Something happens is defined as anything that: Zvi does not know about on August 2, 2026 at 5pm EST (he knows about the math proofs, which will be Monday's post) Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase Is about AI. The speed premium post can happen after Friday, but the central events that trigger it must occur by Friday 5pm eastern. Resolves YES if this happens. Resolves NO if it does not. To avoid leaking information, I will not resolve this market before close unless either (A) the post has been published, or (B) it is trading 95%+ and I know that it will eventually resolve YES. ADDED 8/3: Oh and if you think something in particular has happened and are thus buying please do comment to say what it is if no one else has yet!