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Sunday, August 2, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 12.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 25.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (54 in 24h)
- Spread: CF América (-1.5)Polymarketyes
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Polymarketno
- U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Polymarketno
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August?Polymarketyes
- Will I finish reading the Iliad by the 3rd of August?Manifoldno
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?Polymarketno
- Daily CoinflipManifoldno
- Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.