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PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 5m ago

Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?

Market probability
9.5%
Little changed over 24 hours
7 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$5.2K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party. The following do not qualify as official announcements: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 23, 11:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±14 pts.

Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven

A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.

  • Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
  • Deep, balanced resting book

The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
47Medium
Where the price path tends to go next426 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting93%
  • Stable consensus2%
  • Thin-liquidity spike2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$28.7K

Liquidity

$30K

Total volume

$29.6K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
1.0 pts
Best bid
9.0%
Best ask
10.0%
7-day range
9.5% – 9.5%
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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