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PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 6m ago

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 5?

Last traded probability
0.4%
-0.1 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
0.4%
Event deadline
September 5, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Venue status
open
Resolution source
weather.gov

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 5? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.4%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
September 5, 2026 at 6:06 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 6:12 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 5, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
6m ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Resolution source: weather.gov

Market data

24h volume

$58.4K

Liquidity

$551.8

Total volume

$59.6K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.6 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.7%
7-day range
0.4% – 0.5%
Resolves
Sep 5, 2026
Resolution
weather.gov

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