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Home/Macro / Fed/Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 2?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 6m ago

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 2?

Last traded probability
0.3%
-0.2 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
0.3%
Event deadline
September 2, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Venue status
open
Resolution source
weather.gov

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 2? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.3%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
September 2, 2026 at 8:20 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 2, 2026 at 8:27 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 2, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Market status

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia This market will resolve of…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

13/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity75

Depth of the order book and volume

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
6m ago

Resolution source: weather.gov

Market data

24h volume

$77K

Liquidity

$3.9K

Total volume

$80.5K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.3 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.4%
7-day range
0.1% – 2.5%
Resolves
Sep 2, 2026
Resolution
weather.gov

Trust breakdown

13/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+53
  • Price steadiness+13
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
Trust score13 / 100
How these scores work →
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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