Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
3K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
100 mana
Total volume
1.8K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?
As of Oct 21, 2026, 7:20 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 42.6% (up from 40.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 100 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 3K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
42.6%
+2.2 percentage points
over 24 hours40.4% → 42.6%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
27%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
13
Trades
38
over 49 days
Largest order
300 mana
1.8K mana traded across these 38 trades (last 49 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$1.8K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service! Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service! Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023. To define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition: No human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals No human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene Must be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count) Can't be in a fixed track, like the Las Vegas Loop See also: Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2026 than Waymo? I will delay resolution until both companies report results or until the result is extremely clear, or until it's January 2029, where I'll make an informed guess. (This market is entirely inspired by James so thanks to him and others)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 21, 7:33 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
23Low
Where the price path tends to go next488 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~32h
PredictabilityStable
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+2.224H+2.27D+2.2
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