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PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 34d ago

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?

Final price
100.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.

Final market price
100.0%
Event deadline
September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Probability 24 hours before event deadline
100.0%
Probability seven days before event deadline
100.0%
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30? The final Polymarket price was 100.0%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.

Market data as of
August 2, 2026 at 12:42 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:02 AM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
34d ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Market data

24h volume

$0

Liquidity

$0

Total volume

$98.2K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
99.9%
Best ask
100.0%
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026

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