ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?19%▼1.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?24%▼4.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?33%▲13.0Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz get 60.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 20 Democratic house primary?30%▼20.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?13%▼0.5Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?14%▼14.3US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?8%▼3.0"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)64%▼22.0Will Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?12%▼25.7Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?1%▼3.5Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?83%▼1.5Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?3%▼17.3Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?11%▼6.5Will Jared Moskowitz get 65.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 25 Democratic house primary?39%▼11.0Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?76%▲52.4Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis71%▲31.4
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?19%▼1.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?24%▼4.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?33%▲13.0Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz get 60.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 20 Democratic house primary?30%▼20.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?13%▼0.5Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?14%▼14.3US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?8%▼3.0"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)64%▼22.0Will Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?12%▼25.7Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?1%▼3.5Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?83%▼1.5Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?3%▼17.3Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?11%▼6.5Will Jared Moskowitz get 65.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 25 Democratic house primary?39%▼11.0Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?76%▲52.4Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis71%▲31.4
Home/Macro / Fed/Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-08-15?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 2h ago

Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-08-15?

Last traded probability
0.1%
-50.5 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
0.1%
Event deadline
August 15, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET
Venue status
closed
Resolution source
mlssoccer.com

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-08-15? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.1%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 16, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 16, 2026 at 2:51 AM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 15, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution

What this market actually measures

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 15, 2026 If Los Angeles FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 15, 2026 If Los Angeles FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Resolution source: mlssoccer.com

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

13/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity80

Depth of the order book and volume

Related markets

Will there be another tweet on official AI Digest twitter about the Claude Opus 4.6 Bayesian Loan incident in next 10d?

12%YESTrust 22
ManifoldṀ167.3 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 3am EDT?

12%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$610.2 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 3am EDT?

89%YESTrust 0
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
Data updated
2h ago

Market data

24h volume

$89.6K

Liquidity

$215.1K

Total volume

$90.2K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.1%
7-day range
0.1% – 50.5%
Resolves
Aug 15, 2026
Resolution
mlssoccer.com

Trust breakdown

13/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+56
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score13 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Kalshi$191.7 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 3am EDT?

2%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$12.8 24h

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

0%YESTrust 70
Polymarket$22.2K 24h

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

1%YESTrust 90
Polymarket$62.8K 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]