ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?16%▼22.0Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?100%▲13.7Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?14%▼13.1Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?46%▼12.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?50%▲8.6Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?56%▼4.9Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?7%▼3.0Will a non-MF group be proved this month?73%▲20.4Will something happen in AI the week of Aug 21, 2026?82%▲23.2Will Eric Barlow be the GOP Nominee for Governor of Wyoming in 2026?92%▲48.8Will Pangram detect Deft AI by end of October?71%▲28.1Will there be a new White House press secretary by the end of August?63%▲26.6US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?12%▼6.0Will Wojciech H. Zurek ever win a Nobel Prize?29%▲11.1Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?20%▼2.6Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?22%▼9.5
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?16%▼22.0Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?100%▲13.7Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?14%▼13.1Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?46%▼12.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?50%▲8.6Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?56%▼4.9Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?7%▼3.0Will a non-MF group be proved this month?73%▲20.4Will something happen in AI the week of Aug 21, 2026?82%▲23.2Will Eric Barlow be the GOP Nominee for Governor of Wyoming in 2026?92%▲48.8Will Pangram detect Deft AI by end of October?71%▲28.1Will there be a new White House press secretary by the end of August?63%▲26.6US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?12%▼6.0Will Wojciech H. Zurek ever win a Nobel Prize?29%▲11.1Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?20%▼2.6Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?22%▼9.5
Home/Politics/Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
PolymarketPoliticsUpdated 9m ago

Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?

Last traded probability
100.0%
+3.3 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
100.0%
Event deadline
August 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Venue status
open

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 100.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 19, 2026 at 1:21 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 19, 2026 at 1:30 AM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
9m ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wyoming, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wyoming, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wyoming Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wyoming Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Market data

24h volume

$78.2K

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

39/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity82

Depth of the order book and volume

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto

Liquidity

$264.2K

Total volume

$214.1K

Category
Politics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
99.9%
Best ask
100.0%
7-day range
96.7% – 100.0%
Resolves
Aug 17, 2026

Trust breakdown

39/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+58
  • Price steadiness+14
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
Trust score39 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]