ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noiseUpdated 7m ago

Will Pangram detect Deft AI by end of October?

As of Oct 14, 2026, 2:32 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 35.5% (down from 84.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 130.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
35.5%
−48.7 percentage points
over 24 hours84.1% → 35.5%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingStale price

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

130.1 mana

Total volume

291.8 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
59%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

7

Trades

15

over 56 days

Largest order

80 mana

269.2 mana traded across these 15 trades (last 56 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$269.2 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before October 31, 2026, Pangram (pangram.com) updates its AI text detector such that it reliably detects content generated by Deft AI (deft.ai). Reliable detection is defined as Pangram classifying a test batch of at least 20 default, unedited text outputs generated by Deft AI's model (DFT v1 or later) with an average "AI" or "AI-Assisted" confidence score of…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before October 31, 2026, Pangram (pangram.com) updates its AI text detector such that it reliably detects content generated by Deft AI (deft.ai). Reliable detection is defined as Pangram classifying a test batch of at least 20 default, unedited text outputs generated by Deft AI's model (DFT v1 or later) with an average "AI" or "AI-Assisted" confidence score of 50% or higher (or conversely, an average human score of less than 50%). This outcome may be verified via: An official announcement, release notes, or technical report from Pangram Labs or Deft AI. Independent evaluations, blog posts, or benchmarks published by AI researchers (e.g., on Hugging Face, Medium, or X) demonstrating that Pangram can now flag Deft's outputs. A public test performed and documented by the market creator or community members demonstrating that Deft AI outputs consistently fail to bypass Pangram. If Deft AI outputs continue to reliably bypass Pangram (consistently achieving "100% human" or near-perfect human scores on average) through October 31, 2026, the market resolves to NO. Background In mid-2026, independent developer and researcher Rosmine introduced Distribution Fine-Tuning (DFT), a post-training method designed to align LLM writing style with the statistical distribution of human prose. Unlike traditional Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), DFT aims to eliminate predictable patterns and "AI slop" (such as overused transition words or excessive em-dashes). This technology powers Deft AI (deft.ai), a writing platform designed to generate high-quality prose that reads as human-written. During early benchmarks, 100% of tested Deft AI outputs successfully bypassed the highly-regarded Pangram Labs AI detector, scoring a perfect "100% human" rating. This market tracks whether Pangram will successfully update its models to catch Deft's distribution-aligned outputs by the end of October 2026.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 48.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (84.1% → 35.4%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 14, 2:39 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±33 pts.

Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Stale price

The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.

  • Price has not updated recently (stale)

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next742 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-48.77D-48.7

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