Will a non-MF group be proved this month?
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 76.9%
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will a non-MF group be proved this month? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 76.9%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- August 31, 2026 at 10:02 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 1, 2026 at 4:45 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 30d ago
What this market actually measures
Specifically, will before September 2026, will there be a proof of a finitely presented discrete MF group? If so, this would negatively resolve a long-standing open question about if all groups are MF.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Specifically, will before September 2026, will there be a proof of a finitely presented discrete MF group? If so, this would negatively resolve a long-standing open question about if all groups are MF. This was described as a major open problem in group theory, and a “holy-grail” alongside two other questions. GPT 5.6 Sol says the question is equivalent to: “Can every countable group be faithfully approximated by finite-dimensional unitary matrices when the approximation error is measured in operator norm?” This question resolves YES if a proof is given this month and is generally considered valid. If it takes longer than August to verify but the proof was written in August, it still resolved YES. If all groups are MF, this resolves NO. If no valid proof from August comes about, this resolves NO. I will bet on this market and have insider (publicly accessible) knowledge which leads me to believe the answer will be YES.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ18.5K
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 76.9%
- Resolves
- Aug 31, 2026