Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 17.5%
- Event deadline
- September 5, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 17.5%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- September 6, 2026 at 9:42 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 6, 2026 at 10:29 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- September 5, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 47m ago
What this market actually measures
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market data
24h volume
$54.7K
Liquidity
$36.1K
Total volume
$577.1K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- Best bid
- 17.0%
- Best ask
- 18.0%
- Resolves
- Sep 5, 2026