Market prices a 24.1% chance of “Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination” — little changed over 24 hours
Original Polymarket title: “Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?”
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 6, 2028 at 7:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 6, 8:51 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±9 pts.
What's happening
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
Market data
24h volume
$66.9K
Liquidity