Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?18%6.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?88%9.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?13%8.0Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?25%7.5Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?78%18.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?75%14.0Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?8%9.5Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?30%7.0Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH again more than 267.8431 USDC Base by September 14th 11:59 pm UTC77%39.3Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?26%4.0Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?7%8.1Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?53%4.5Fed rate hike in 2026?92%5.5Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?88%10.0Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?89%6.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?52%6.2
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 1h ago

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 14?

Last traded probability
0.1%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
0.1%
Event deadline
September 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
Venue status
closed
Resolution source
wsj.com

ProbCast Reliability Summary

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 14? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.1%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
September 14, 2026 at 6:42 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 14, 2026 at 7:43 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
1h ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, September 14, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, September 14, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on …

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, September 14, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, September 14, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Resolution source: wsj.com

Market data

24h volume

$57.8K

Liquidity

$43.9K

Total volume

$61K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.1%
Resolves
Sep 14, 2026
Resolution
wsj.com

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