CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 1.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 1.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
On September 18, 2026, President Trump announced that CNN, MS NOW, and Politico were banned from the White House. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the ban is lifted for at least one of CNN, MS NOW, or Politico.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
On September 18, 2026, President Trump announced that CNN, MS NOW, and Politico were banned from the White House. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the ban is lifted for at least one of CNN, MS NOW, or Politico. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The ban is lifted if: (i) the President, the White House, or an authorized White House official publicly announces that the ban is lifted or will not be enforced, (ii) the United States government officially rescinds, suspends, reverses, or withdraws the ban for one or more of the specified outlets; (iii) a court or other competent authority issues an order that rescinds the ban or bars its enforcement for one or more of the specified outlets. The following do not qualify: a statement that the ban may or might be lifted, or that access may be restored if certain conditions are met; discussions or negotiations about lifting the ban; third-party speculation or reporting about a potential lifting of the ban. Once the ban has been lifted, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the ban is subsequently reimposed, a relevant order is later stayed or reversed, or access is again withdrawn. If, on September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ban has not been enforced prior to that time, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The primary resolution sources will be official information from the White House and the affected outlets, official court records in any related litigation, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 5.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (81.5% → 86.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 23, 6:42 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 5.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Thin-liquidity spike71%
- Choppy / mean-reverting21%
- Stable consensus4%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$39.6K
Liquidity
$17K
Total volume
$64.6K
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- Best bid
- 86.0%
- Best ask
- 87.0%
- 7-day range
- 81.5% – 88.0%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026