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PolymarketPoliticsUpdated 13m ago

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?

Market probability
86.5%
+5 percentage points
over 24 hours81.5%86.5%
7 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 1.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Unsettled

The probability moved another 1.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$35.1K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

On September 18, 2026, President Trump announced that CNN, MS NOW, and Politico were banned from the White House. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the ban is lifted for at least one of CNN, MS NOW, or Politico.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

On September 18, 2026, President Trump announced that CNN, MS NOW, and Politico were banned from the White House. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the ban is lifted for at least one of CNN, MS NOW, or Politico. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The ban is lifted if: (i) the President, the White House, or an authorized White House official publicly announces that the ban is lifted or will not be enforced, (ii) the United States government officially rescinds, suspends, reverses, or withdraws the ban for one or more of the specified outlets; (iii) a court or other competent authority issues an order that rescinds the ban or bars its enforcement for one or more of the specified outlets. The following do not qualify: a statement that the ban may or might be lifted, or that access may be restored if certain conditions are met; discussions or negotiations about lifting the ban; third-party speculation or reporting about a potential lifting of the ban. Once the ban has been lifted, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the ban is subsequently reimposed, a relevant order is later stayed or reversed, or access is again withdrawn. If, on September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ban has not been enforced prior to that time, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The primary resolution sources will be official information from the White House and the affected outlets, official court records in any related litigation, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 5.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (81.5% 86.5%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 23, 6:42 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 5.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
18Low
Where the price path tends to go next70 observed
  • Thin-liquidity spike71%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting21%
  • Stable consensus4%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$39.6K

Liquidity

$17K

Total volume

$64.6K

Category
Politics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
1.0 pts
Best bid
86.0%
Best ask
87.0%
7-day range
81.5% – 88.0%
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026
Change (pts)1H-1.56H+5.024H+5.07D+5.0

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