Bitcoin Up or Down on September 17?
No meaningful 24-hour repricing, though the price is still shifting on shorter windows.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 11 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 17 '26 12…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Resolution source: binance.com
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (binance.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 16, 11:29 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±25 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 11.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Trend continuation51%
- News repricing22%
- Choppy / mean-reverting15%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$71.4K
Liquidity
$44.1K
Total volume
$71.5K
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- Best bid
- 76.0%
- Best ask
- 77.0%
- 7-day range
- 65.5% – 76.5%
- Resolves
- Sep 17, 2026
- Resolution
- binance.com