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Home/Macro / Fed/MLB: Will the Philadelphia Phillies sweep the Atlanta Braves OR will the 3-game series total 29 or more runs?
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 13m ago

MLB: Will the Philadelphia Phillies sweep the Atlanta Braves OR will the 3-game series total 29 or more runs?

Market probability
41.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
9 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 11, 2026 at 7:12 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$20 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

See previous similar propositions. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if either of the following conditions is met during the scheduled 3-game series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves from September 11 to September 13, 2026: Phillies Sweep: The Philadelphia Phillies win all completed games in the series.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

See previous similar propositions. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if either of the following conditions is met during the scheduled 3-game series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves from September 11 to September 13, 2026: Phillies Sweep: The Philadelphia Phillies win all completed games in the series. A minimum of 2 completed games is required to constitute a sweep. High-Scoring Series: The total combined runs scored by both teams across all completed games in the series is 29 or more. If neither condition is met, the market will resolve to NO. Rules and Edge Cases: Source of Truth: Outcomes will be verified using official box scores published on MLB.com. Postponements & Cancellations: Games must be completed by the end of the day on September 14, 2026, to count toward the resolution. If a game is postponed beyond this date or canceled, only the games actually completed within the window will count toward the run total and sweep criteria. Shortened Games: Shortened games (e.g., due to weather) will count toward the run total and win/loss records as long as they are ruled official games by Major League Baseball. Background The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves face off in a late-season 3-game series at Truist Park in Atlanta from September 11–13, 2026. This series closely follows a separate 4-game series between the NL East rivals earlier in the month (September 4–7). This binary market offers two distinct paths to a YES resolution: either a dominant series sweep by the Phillies, or an offensive explosion where both lineups combine for an average of at least 9.67 runs per game. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 11, 2026 at 7:12 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 2, 2:45 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

31/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement0

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity42

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
9Low
Where the price path tends to go next755 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ20

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ20

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
41.0%
7-day range
41.0% – 41.0%
Resolves
Sep 11, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

31/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+32
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
Trust score31 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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