Market prices a 17.0% chance of “Will the next George R. R. Martin "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"” — down 3 points in 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will the next George R. R. Martin "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"?”
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (20.0% → 17.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 7, 2027 at 2:39 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 8, 4:54 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ325
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ325
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold