PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 43m ago

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?

Final price
1.3%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 1.3%.

Final market price
1.3%
Event deadline
September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? The final Polymarket price was 1.3%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 1.3%.

Market data as of
October 1, 2026 at 4:01 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
October 1, 2026 at 4:44 AM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
43m ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will completely withdraw from Al Udeid Air Base between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will completely withdraw from Al Udeid Air Base between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base refers to a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of The United States’ present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. An announcement of a decision to implement such a withdrawal will qualify, regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain for a period of time prior to withdrawal. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement need not use specific terminology, provided the substance of a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base is clearly and unambiguously communicated. For example, an announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid Air Base, or withdraw all troops from Qatar (necessarily including Al Udeid), would qualify; however a vague announcement that the United States will draw down its troop presence in the middle east would not. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify as official announcements: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of a withdrawal rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the withdrawal is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.

Market data

24h volume

$1.6K

Liquidity

$2.2K

Total volume

$197K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
1.9 pts
Best bid
0.3%
Best ask
2.2%
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026

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