Market prices a 23.5% chance of “Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026” — up 8 points in 24 hours
Original Polymarket title: “Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?”
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 7 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: x.com
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 7 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 8.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (15.5% → 23.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 8, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (x.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 8, 1:42 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.