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Original Manifold title: “Will a high-surf advisory be issued for the Orange County or San Diego coastline between August 6 and August 26, 2026?”
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.7 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
24h volume
Ṁ46
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ46
Depth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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