MLB: Will the Los Angeles Dodgers sweep the Miami Marlins OR will the 3-game series total 27 or more runs?
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (5.3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
See previous similar propositions. Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if either of the following conditions is met during the 3-game series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Miami Marlins scheduled for September 11–13, 2026: Dodgers Sweep: The Los Angeles Dodgers win all three games of the series.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
See previous similar propositions. Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if either of the following conditions is met during the 3-game series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Miami Marlins scheduled for September 11–13, 2026: Dodgers Sweep: The Los Angeles Dodgers win all three games of the series. Runs Total: The aggregate number of runs scored by both teams combined across all three games of the series is 27 or more (i.e., Dodgers total runs + Marlins total runs $\ge$ 27). If neither of these conditions is met (the Marlins win at least one game AND the combined series run total is 26 or fewer), the market resolves to NO. Details & Edge Cases: Official Source: Game results and run totals will be determined via official MLB.com box scores. Extra Innings: Runs scored during extra innings count toward the total. Uncompleted Games: If any of the scheduled games are postponed, canceled, or shortened to fewer than 9 innings (or 8.5 innings if the home team is leading) and not fully completed by September 15, 2026, the market will resolve as N/A unless a YES outcome is already mathematically guaranteed (e.g., the run total has already reached 27 or more in the games played). Background The Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins are scheduled to face off in a 3-game series at loanDepot Park in Miami from September 11 to September 13, 2026. This market tracks a two-way pathway to a "YES" resolution: either a dominant 3-0 series sweep by the Dodgers or a highly offensive series where the two teams combine for at least 27 runs across the three matchups. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 5.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 55.3%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeSeptember 11, 2026 at 7:07 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 2, 2:45 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.