MLB: Will the Houston Astros sweep the Tampa Bay Rays OR will the 3-game series total 26 or more runs?
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (4.8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
See previous similar propositions. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if either (or both) of the following conditions are met during the 3-game series between the Houston Astros and the Tampa Bay Rays scheduled for September 11–13, 2026: Astros Sweep: The Houston Astros win all games played in the series (typically 3 games).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
See previous similar propositions. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if either (or both) of the following conditions are met during the 3-game series between the Houston Astros and the Tampa Bay Rays scheduled for September 11–13, 2026: Astros Sweep: The Houston Astros win all games played in the series (typically 3 games). Runs Total: The combined total runs scored by both teams across the entire series is 26 or more. This market will resolve to NO if the series is completed (with at least 2 games played), the Astros do not win all games, and the combined run total across all played games is 25 or fewer. Rules and Edge Cases: Postponements/Cancellations: Only games completed on or before September 14, 2026, will count toward this market. If a game is postponed to a later date in the season, it will not be included. If fewer than 3 games are completed, a sweep can still resolve to YES if the Astros win all completed games (minimum of 2 completed games required; if 1 or 0 games are completed, the sweep condition cannot resolve to YES). Abbreviated/Canceled Series: If no games are played or completed by September 14, 2026, the market will resolve to N/A. Extra Innings: Runs scored in extra innings count toward the game outcome and series run totals. Source of Truth: Official box scores provided by MLB.com. Background The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays are scheduled to play a 3-game series at Tropicana Field from September 11 to September 13, 2026. This is their second 3-game meeting of the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In their first 3-game series of the year (played July 3–5, 2026, in Houston), the Rays won the first game 3–1, and the Astros won the subsequent two games 10–8 and 2–0. That series total was 24 runs, and the Astros did not achieve a sweep. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 4.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 54.8%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeSeptember 11, 2026 at 7:07 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 2, 2:43 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.