MLB: Will the Boston Red Sox sweep the Kansas City Royals OR will the 3-game series total 30 or more runs?
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (7.8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
See previous similar propositions. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if either (or both) of the following conditions are met during the 3-game series between the Boston Red Sox and the Kansas City Royals scheduled for September 11–13, 2026: Red Sox Sweep: The Boston Red Sox win all three games of the series.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
See previous similar propositions. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if either (or both) of the following conditions are met during the 3-game series between the Boston Red Sox and the Kansas City Royals scheduled for September 11–13, 2026: Red Sox Sweep: The Boston Red Sox win all three games of the series. 30+ Total Runs: The combined total of all runs scored by both teams across the three games of the series is 30 or higher (i.e., Game 1 runs + Game 2 runs + Game 3 runs $\ge$ 30). If neither condition is met, this market will resolve to NO. Additional Rules & Edge Cases: Official Source: Outcomes and run totals will be verified using official box scores on MLB.com. Extra Innings: All runs scored in extra innings count toward the series total, and the final official winner of the game counts toward the sweep condition. Postponements & Unplayed Games: All three games must be officially completed by the end of September 14, 2026, for the market to resolve normally. If any game is postponed, canceled, or suspended and not completed by this date: The market will resolve to YES if either condition was already mathematically secured before the disruption (e.g., 30 or more runs were already scored). If the series is shortened and the outcome remains mathematically undetermined, the market will resolve to N/A. Background The Boston Red Sox host the Kansas City Royals at Fenway Park for a 3-game series from September 11 to September 13, 2026. Earlier in the 2026 season (May 18–20), the Red Sox swept the Royals in Kansas City, winning 3-1, 7-1, and 4-3 for a series total of 19 runs. This market is forward-looking and applies strictly to the September series. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 7.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 42.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeSeptember 11, 2026 at 7:07 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 2, 2:45 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.