Will July 2026 U.S. new home sales be at least 650,000 (SAAR)?
Data is not live — latest snapshot Aug 12, 2:39 PM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial Census/HUD New Residential Sales release for July 2026 reports new single-family houses sold in the United States at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000 or higher. Use the total United States 'New Houses Sold' SAAR value from the initial July 2026 New Residential Sales release.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial Census/HUD New Residential Sales release for July 2026 reports new single-family houses sold in the United States at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000 or higher. Use the total United States 'New Houses Sold' SAAR value from the initial July 2026 New Residential Sales release. Resolve NO if that value is 649,000 or lower. Do not use housing starts, building permits, housing completions, existing-home sales, regional values, unadjusted counts, median or average sales prices, year-over-year changes, or later annual revisions unless Census/HUD corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 New Residential Sales release is delayed, wait for the first Census/HUD release containing the July 2026 total new-houses-sold SAAR value unless there is no such release by September 8, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2025_new_houses_sold_saar": 701000, "april_2026_mom_percent": -6.2, "april_2026_months_supply": 9.4, "april_2026_new_houses_for_sale": 489000, "april_2026_new_houses_sold_saar": 622000, "april_2026_yoy_percent": -11.3, "march_2026_revised_new_houses_sold_saar": 663000, "note": "May 2026 New Residential Sales is scheduled for June 24, 2026 and was not yet released at creation time.", "release": "Monthly New Residential Sales, April 2026"}, "metric": "New single-family houses sold, total United States, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "related_non_duplicates": ["May and June 2026 new-home-sales markets are prior-reference-month markets, not July 2026 duplicates.", "Housing-starts markets are not duplicates.", "Building-permits markets are not duplicates.", "Housing-completions markets are not duplicates.", "Existing-home-sales markets are not duplicates.", "Median-price, regional, unadjusted-count, year-over-year, and revision-only markets are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "Census lists New Residential Sales for July 2026 on August 25, 2026 at 10:00 AM Eastern. The Survey of Construction schedule also lists New Residential Sales releases on the monthly schedule.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Census/HUD New Residential Sales release for July 2026", "threshold_units": "650,000 houses sold at SAAR"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census economic indicators calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census 2026 release schedule: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/2026-release-schedule-list-view.html - Census construction release schedule: https://www.census.gov/construction/soc/schedule.html - Current New Residential Sales PDF: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf - Census current New Residential Sales page: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeAugust 25, 2026 at 9:55 AM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 12, 3:01 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.