Will July 2026 U.S. import prices rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?

The probability decreased by 23.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast reads this as thin-market noise rather than a genuine repricing.

• ·Trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
• ·The probability moved quickly in a short window.
• ·The movement appears to come from limited trading activity rather than broad repricing.

Resolution

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Import and Export Price Indexes release for July 2026 reports that U.S. import prices rose 0.5% or more month-over-month. Use the all-imports / all-commodities import price index one-month percent change from June 2026 to July 2026 in the initial BLS July 2026 Import and Export Price Indexes release. Resolve YES if that monthly change is +0.5% or higher. Resolve NO if it is +0.4% or lower. Do not use export prices, fuel-only import prices, nonfuel-only import prices, capital-goods or consumer-goods subindexes, harmonized-category import indexes, year-over-year changes, CPI, PPI, PCE, trade-deficit data, exchange rates, commodity spot prices, forecasts, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 Import and Export Price Indexes release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the July 2026 import-price figure unless there is no such release by August 25, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"all_exports_april_2026_mom": 3.3, "all_imports_april_2026_mom": 1.9, "note": "The May 2026 release is scheduled for 2026-06-16 and was not yet released at creation time.", "release": "U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, April 2026"}, "metric": "One-month percent change in the all-import price index from June 2026 to July 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["June 2026 import-price markets are prior-reference-month markets, not July 2026 duplicates.", "Export-price markets are not duplicates of import-price markets.", "Fuel-only, nonfuel-only, capital-goods, consumer-goods, harmonized-category, year-over-year, and forecast-consensus markets are not duplicates.", "CPI, PPI, PCE, trade-deficit, exchange-rate, and commodity-price markets use different releases or criteria."], "release_schedule": "BLS's U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes schedule lists the July 2026 reference month for Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:30 Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Import and Export Price Indexes release for July 2026", "series_family": "U.S. import price indexes, all imports / all commodities", "threshold": "+0.5% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Import and Export Price Indexes release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ximpim.htm - BLS current Import and Export Price Indexes release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.htm - BLS import price table 1: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.t01.htm - BLS Import/Export Price Indexes home: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/