Will Brazil approve Daniel Perez as U.S. ambassador before its 2026 presidential election?

This market comes amid an escalating diplomatic dispute between Brazil and the United States. Brazil has delayed granting agrément to Daniel Perez after the Trump administration announced his nomination before formally obtaining Brazil’s consent. Brazil also denied visas to two U.S. State Department officials whose planned visit, according to Brazilian officials, raised concerns about possible interference in the October election and efforts to cast doubt on the country’s electronic voting system. The U.S. government denied those allegations and described the visit as routine. Washington later revoked the visa of Brazil’s ambassador to the United States and said it could be restored if Brazil approves Perez. This market will resolve to Yes if the Brazilian government formally grants diplomatic approval (agrément) to Daniel Perez to serve as U.S. ambassador to Brazil before voting begins in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. It will resolve to No if approval is not granted before that deadline. Resolution will be based on official statements from the Brazilian government, the U.S. government, or clear reporting from major reputable news organizations. Daniel Perez does not need to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate, arrive in Brazil, or formally take office for this market to resolve to Yes.