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The probability decreased by 3.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast reads this as a developing move — real, but not yet decisively backed.
Will July 2026 U.S. housing starts be at least 1.4 million (SAAR)? The current Manifold probability is 21.7%, down 3.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as a Developing Move with medium confidence because trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
This market resolves YES if the initial Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for July 2026 reports total privately-owned U.S. housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,400,000 or higher. Use the total United States housing starts SAAR value in the initial July 2026 New Residential Construction release. Resolve NO if that value is 1,399,000 or lower. Do not use building permits, housing completions, new residential sales, single-family-only starts, multifamily-only starts, regional starts, not seasonally adjusted counts, year-over-year changes, or later annual revisions unless Census/HUD corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 New Residential Construction release is delayed, wait for the first Census/HUD release containing the July 2026 total housing-starts SAAR value unless there is no such release by August 25, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2025_total_housing_starts_saar": 1400000, "april_2026_building_permits_saar": 1442000, "april_2026_housing_completions_saar": 1449000, "april_2026_mom_percent": -2.8, "april_2026_total_housing_starts_saar": 1465000, "april_2026_yoy_percent": 4.6, "march_2026_revised_total_housing_starts_saar": 1507000, "note": "May 2026 New Residential Construction was scheduled for June 16, 2026 and was not yet released at creation time.", "release": "Monthly New Residential Construction, April 2026"}, "metric": "Privately-owned housing starts, total United States, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "related_non_duplicates": ["May and June 2026 housing-starts markets are prior-reference-month markets, not July 2026 duplicates.", "Building-permits markets are not duplicates.", "Housing-completions markets are not duplicates.", "New-residential-sales markets are not duplicates.", "Single-family-only, multifamily-only, regional, unadjusted-count, or year-over-year housing-starts markets are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "Census lists New Residential Construction for July 2026 on August 18, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for July 2026", "threshold_units": "1,400,000 housing units at SAAR"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census economic indicators calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census 2026 release schedule: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/2026-release-schedule-list-view.html - Census construction release schedule: https://www.census.gov/construction/soc/schedule.html - Census current New Residential Construction page: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html - Census current New Residential Construction PDF: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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