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Currently 52% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 44/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if I have published at least 300 total questions on Manifold by August 18, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Source of truth: The public question count on my Manifold profile. Any questions that are deleted, merged, or otherwise not reflected in my profile's active question count at the time of resolution will not count toward the 300-question threshold. Background As of the creation of this market on July 4, 2026, I have published 151 questions. To reach the target of 300 questions by August 18, 2026 (a period of 45 days), I must create 149 more questions, which requires an average of approximately 3.31 new questions per day. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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