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Currently 24% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 39/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Only Manifold has this matched event in the current feed
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the Codeforces user Mitpro achieves a rating of 1600 or higher in any rated contest that finishes and has its rating changes finalized before July 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC and after June 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. Source of Truth: The official Codeforces profile page for Mitpro: codeforces.com/profile/Mitpro. Rank Requirements: The "Expert" rank on Codeforces is designated for users with a rating in the 1600–1899 range. Timing: The rating change must be officially published on the Codeforces profile before the July 1, 2026, cutoff. If a contest takes place before July 1st but the rating calculations are delayed and finalized on or after July 1st, that contest's rating update will not count. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output. My current rating graph: [image]
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketMagnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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