Will England’s earnings-to-house-price ratio top 12.5% in 2040?

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that, for England in calendar year 2040, median annual full-time earnings divided by the median house price is greater than 12.5%. The ratio should be calculated as: median annual full-time earnings ÷ median house price × 100 Use the most authoritative England-wide data available, preferably from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) or its successor. The earnings measure should be gross annual full-time earnings, and the house-price measure should be the median price of residential property, using the closest official measures available to these definitions. The relevant data must refer to the period between January 1, 2040 and December 31, 2040. If the official measures use slightly different reference dates within 2040, such as an annual period ending during 2040, those may be used if they are the standard official statistics for that year. Resolves NO if the resulting ratio is 12.5% or lower. This market will not resolve before June 1, 2041. If sufficiently authoritative 2040 data has not been published by then, the market should remain open until adequate evidence is available. [image]