Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?
Confirmed repricing; the market is settling at the new level.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
StrongThe pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (1.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies. Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 21, 2:40 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Sep 3029.5%
- By Oct 31 (this market)73.5%
Extending the deadline from Sep 30 to Oct 31 adds about 44.0 percentage points of implied probability.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±12 pts.
What's happening
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
- Liquid, two-sided, and calm — price behaving as settled consensus
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Stable consensus91%
- Choppy / mean-reverting8%
- Trend continuation2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$120.8K
Liquidity
$31.5K
Total volume
$158.4K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- Best bid
- 73.0%
- Best ask
- 74.0%
- 7-day range
- 72.0% – 73.5%
- Resolves
- Oct 31, 2026