If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed, will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 Midterms?
Data is not live — latest snapshot Sep 24, 1:49 AM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed on the day of the 2026 Midterms, will the Democrats get control of both the House and the Senate. Strait of Hormuz closure will be based off of this website.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed on the day of the 2026 Midterms, will the Democrats get control of both the House and the Senate. Strait of Hormuz closure will be based off of this website. If this website stops working I'll use my own judgement in picking another appropriate source or a shipping threshold. If the Strait is open on the day of midterms then the market will N/A. If the Strait opens for a time before the Midterms and then recloses and is closed for Midterms it will still resolve. Resolution on Democrats controlling both the House and the Senate will occur after reputable sources have called enough races to determine resolution.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 24, 2:13 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ1.5K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 65.0%
- Resolves
- Nov 3, 2026