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Home/Politics/Democrats win Iowa, Texas or both in the 2026 US Senate elections?
ManifoldPoliticsUpdated 9m ago

Democrats win Iowa, Texas or both in the 2026 US Senate elections?

Market probability
57.4%
−0.6 percentage points
over 24 hours58.0% → 57.4%
80 days until the event deadline
Deadline: November 3, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$1 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolves yes if Democrats (or those who caucus with dems) win the 2026 iowa senate election, the 2026 Texas senate election, or both of them. (Identical market to: source market)

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolves yes if Democrats (or those who caucus with dems) win the 2026 iowa senate election, the 2026 Texas senate election, or both of them. (Identical market to: source market)

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 15, 4:29 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.

Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Stale price

The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ1

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ1

Category
Politics
Venue
Manifold
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-0.67D-0.6
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

15/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement5

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity30

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Democrats win Texas, Michigan, Alaska and Maine for Senate in 2026?

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56%YESTrust 16
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Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election by 5.00% or more?

36%YESTrust 46
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Price has not updated recently (stale)
  • Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
19Low
Where the price path tends to go next769 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Open interest
—
Current probability
57.4%
7-day range
57.4% – 58.0%
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

15/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+28
  • Price steadiness+29
  • Thin liquidity-20
Trust score15 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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