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Home/Macro / Fed/How high will unemployment get before 2027?
KalshiMacro / FedUpdated 13m ago

How high will unemployment get before 2027?

Market probability
2.1%
Little changed over 24 hours
127 days until the event deadline
Deadline: January 8, 2027 at 8:25 AM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 12%, the market resolves to Yes.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 12%, the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution source: If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 12%, th…

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 8, 2027 at 8:25 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 2, 5:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Probability by deadline

The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.

  • By Jan 818.0%
  • By Jan 480.0%

Extending the deadline from Jan 8 to Jan 4 adds about 62.0 percentage points of implied probability.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.

Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Stale price

The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.

Market data

24h volume

$6.8

Liquidity

$0

Total volume

$3.2K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Kalshi
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.124H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement1

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity

Insufficient data — this venue reports no volume or book depth for this market, so liquidity can't be measured (unknown, not necessarily poor).

Related markets

How high will unemployment get before 2027?

18%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$101.3 24h

How high will unemployment get before 2027?

5%YESTrust 2
Kalshi$71.2 24h

How high will unemployment get before 2027?

3%YESTrust 5
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Price has not updated recently (stale)
  • Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
22Low
Where the price path tends to go next679 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~5d
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Open interest
$1.6K
Spread
1.8 pts
Best bid
1.2%
Best ask
3.0%
7-day range
2.1% – 2.1%
Resolves
Jan 8, 2027
Resolution
If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 12%, th…

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+25
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Missing market data-15
  • Thin liquidity-20
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Kalshi

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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