ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?81%▲15.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?18%▼17.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?82%▲17.5Fed rate hike in 2026?90%▲11.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 12?14%▼18.0Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?27%▼5.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?21%▲6.5Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?20%▲4.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?65%▲6.4Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?38%▼5.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?39%▲7.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?76%▼0.1Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?73%▼9.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?39%▲4.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?20%▲1.7Will the 46% improvement to the nanogpt speedrun be accepted?65%▼11.9

Event · resolves around 2026-10-28

Fed — rate decision · Oct 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $100.6K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket39%+4.0 pts60Confirmed move
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket2%-0.3 pts64Developing

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