ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?50%▼26.0Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?51%▲26.0Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?28%▼12.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?10%▲4.0Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September?59%▲4.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?13%▼17.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?43%▼2.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?60%▲15.8Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?14%▲1.0Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?36%▼0.4Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?3%▼5.2SpaceX closes at $150.00 or higher on Friday 18 September 2026?76%▲26.3Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?50%▼5.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?51%▲5.0Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?61%▼7.0US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on September 21 2026?59%▲44.4

Event · resolves around 2026-09-18

Bank — rate decision · Sep 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $445.9K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket0%-0.1 pts70Developing
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket100%+0.3 pts77Developing

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