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Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?68%▼6.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?14%▼7.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 17?98%▲8.6Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?71%▲17.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17?16%▲10.3Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?76%▼8.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?49%▲10.0Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in August?20%▲7.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?7%▲4.9Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?40%▲1.5"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)88%▲24.8US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?5%▼9.8Will Rodri join Barcelona?98%▲18.3Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?56%▲20.6Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?11%▼3.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?95%▲2.0
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?68%▼6.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?14%▼7.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 17?98%▲8.6Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?71%▲17.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17?16%▲10.3Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?76%▼8.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?49%▲10.0Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in August?20%▲7.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?7%▲4.9Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?40%▲1.5"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)88%▲24.8US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?5%▼9.8Will Rodri join Barcelona?98%▲18.3Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?56%▲20.6Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?11%▼3.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?95%▲2.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-18

Bitcoin — price targets · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket and Manifold · $71.4K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 18?PolymarketCrypto0%+0.2 pts$71.4K8066Developing
Will Bitcoin be above $65k on August 18?ManifoldCrypto24%+12.3 ptsṀ98.7510Likely noise

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

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