Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- August 19, 2026 at 8:25 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 22, 2026 at 8:29 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 3, 2026 at 5:37 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 19, 2026 at 8:25 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 41d ago
What this market actually measures
OPEN 63,559.43 Start 8:30 PM EDT 8/12/2026 END 8:30 PM EDT 8/19/2026 Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is higher exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the market is created than it was at the exact time of creation. If the price is lower than or equal to the price at creation, the market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
OPEN 63,559.43 Start 8:30 PM EDT 8/12/2026 END 8:30 PM EDT 8/19/2026 Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is higher exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the market is created than it was at the exact time of creation. If the price is lower than or equal to the price at creation, the market resolves to NO. Primary Source: CoinGecko's Bitcoin (BTC) page (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin) Fallback Source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/) Timing: The price comparison is determined using the price at the market's exact creation timestamp ($T_0$) versus the price exactly 168 hours later ($T_0 + 168$ hours). If precise minute-by-minute historical data is inaccessible on the resolution date, the closest available hourly data points provided by the primary source will be used. Background Bitcoin (BTC) is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency and remains the largest by market capitalization. Its valuation is highly volatile and driven by shifting macroeconomic factors, ETF inflows and outflows, halving cycles, and general market liquidity. Short-term 7-day price movements are commonly traded based on technical analysis, regulatory news, and liquidations.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ19.3K
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ27K
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 99.0%
- Resolves
- Aug 19, 2026