ProbCastOdds Reliability
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?57%▲27.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?100%▲30.7Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September?76%▼7.3Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?87%▲11.6Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?79%▲8.5Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?44%▲4.6Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?26%▼7.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?54%▲1.0Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?14%▼5.0Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 29?27%▼26.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?44%▲17.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?18%▼15.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?35%▼4.0Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?79%▲5.0Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026?22%▼40.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?7%▼3.0

Event · resolves around 2026-10-23

Democrats — election · Oct 2026

6 related contracts across Polymarket · $293K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Polymarket74%+6.5 pts73Confirmed move
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Polymarket50%+0.5 pts76Developing
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Polymarket26%0.0 pts58Developing
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Polymarket74%+3.0 pts56Confirmed move
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Polymarket27%0.0 pts55Developing
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Polymarket63%+1.0 pts62Developing

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