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Tuesday, November 3, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 41.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 27.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 36.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (41 in 24h)
- Daily CoinflipManifoldno
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will I be able to retrieve my laptop after leaving it on the bus?Manifoldyes
- Bitcoin 100k before Election day?Manifoldno
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Polymarketno
- will openAI reach a 1 trillion (USD) valuation before 1/1/2028Manifoldyes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Polymarketno
- Will the AAA national average gas price hit $4.500 before the November 3 midterms?Manifoldno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.