Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
2.5K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
2.7K mana
Total volume
2.7K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Republicans win EVERY Cook Political Report Lean R Seat?
As of Nov 2, 2026, 10:23 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 18.7% (down from 50.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 2.7K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 2.5K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
18.7%
−31.3 percentage points
over 24 hours50.0% → 18.7%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 3.2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
75%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
6
over 3h
Largest order
2K mana
2.7K mana traded across these 6 trades (last 3h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$2.7K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 31.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 18.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 2, 10:31 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 31.3 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
3Low
Where the price path tends to go next366 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityLow· half-life <1h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H-3.26H-31.324H-31.37D-31.3
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