ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Monday, November 2, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+7.032%Confirmed move
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.022%Confirmed move
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.079%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.083%Confirmed move
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.527%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

Moved down 55.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-55.527%Likely noise
Will I have a 69% win rate stat on Manifold before 2027?

Moved up 36.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+36.094%Likely noise
How high will unemployment get before 2030?

Moved down 53.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-53.035%Likely noise

Settled (53 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.