Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Sunday, November 1, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 27.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 39.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 24.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (87 in 24h)
- Will $500 Obamacare rebate checks start going out by Oct. 31 2026? (ACA)Manifoldyes
- Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by October 31, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?Polymarketno
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?Polymarketno
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in October?Polymarketno
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.